Integrated surveillance: Joint modeling of rodent and human tularemia cases in Finland

Objective We seek to integrate multiple streams of geo-coded information with the aim to improve public health surveillance accuracy and efficiency. Specifically for vector-borne diseases, knowledge of spatial and temporal patterns of vector distribution can help early prediction of human incidence. To this end, we develop joint modeling approaches to evaluate the contribution of vector or reservoir information on early prediction of human cases. A case study of spatiotemporal modeling of tularemia human incidence and rodent population data from Finnish health care districts during the period 1995-2013 is provided. Results suggest that spatial and temporal information of rodent abundance is useful in predicting human cases.